The best that can be said of a disaster is that sometimes we
can learn something, if we are wise and attentive, that will make for a better
outcome in the future.
I just finished reading a great essay, Lost and Found in Japan ,
on the World Futures Society website. The author, Patrick Tucker, reports on
his travels to several villages in Japan that were devastated by the
tsunami that struck on March 11, 2011.
Tucker notes “Events like the March 11 earthquake and
tsunami in Japan illustrate just how little control we have over the future,
despite our actions. Contrary to common hubris, you cannot plan for the
unthinkable. You can only pay attention, listen, and learn in order to build
stronger, react smarter, survive better when the unforeseeable occurs.”
An aging society (In the
tsunami-affected prefectures of Iwate, Fukushima ,
and Miyagi, an average of one in four people is over the age of 65. Today, 1 in
8 Americans are older than 65. In 2034, the ratio will jump to 1 in 5.)
Growing disparity in wealth (in Japan , “kakusa sakai ”—the society without evenness). See this article on the US Congressional Budget Office report released this week documenting that the top 1 percent of earners more than doubled their share of the nation’s income
over the last three decades.
Rising unemployment (especially
notable among relatively well-educated youth—which is known in Japan as the
Lost Generation).
Increasing distrust in government
(though that is kind of perpetual in the US ).
Watching how the consequences of this natural disaster play
out in Japan—demographically, technologically, culturally, politically—sheds
light on what the US might face in the future from natural and man-made
catastrophes.
Some things that jump out at me, when I read Tucker’s
observations:
1) The way that large numbers of volunteers, largely young
people, many from the ranks of the under- or unemployed, flocked to help after
the tsunami. This dramatizes the potential in both our populations of people
ready and able to do good and necessary work, if only we can provide productive
channels for their energy, altruism and discontent. Contrast the focused,
organized and productive response of volunteers to disaster relief in Japan with general dissatisfaction in the US that has
given rise to still unfocused rage at social inequality expressed through Occupy
Wall Street and its sister protests.
3) The huge difference that a single nonprofit can make.
Tucker highlights the work of Peace Boat, a Japanese NGO founded by students in
the 1980s to promote world peace through cultural tourism. In the aftermath of
the tsunami, Peace Boat directed its fleet and its staff towards relief
efforts—bringing in and coordinating volunteers, and evacuating local youth to “summer
in a healthy, dynamic and creative environment, where they can learn new
skills, enjoy new experiences and gain a fresh perspective on the future, while
enabling their parents to focus on rebuilding their community.” Tucker notes
that Peace Boat may well bankrupt itself in the process, but what a glorious
way to go!
4) The scale of the response required for a disaster of this scope, and the daunting
gap between needs and resources. Tucker reports that the Ishinomaki authorities
plan to build 150 government-subsidized housing units. However, 8,000 families
have applied for temporary housing, and that number is expected to reach 10,000.
What role can the NGO and private sector play in filling that gap? Tucker mentions
the work of David Lopez, a Baltimore
architect who’s promoting new approaches to emergency housing. His focus: “shelter
solutions that allow communities to stay together, as close to their original
dwellings as possible, after disasters,” enabling people to stay in their
neighborhoods and house themselves by making low-cost, adaptive use of debris.
5) The hyper-local approach to disaster relief taken in Japan , in which communities make most of the key decisions about how to deploy government resources, from how to group neighbors
together in emergency shelters, to how to rebuild. Contrast this with the often
ham-handed federally-driven approach taken to relief in New Orleans post-Katrina. “If there is
anything to be learned from the events that played out in Japan after the
tsunami,” notes Tucker, “it is that our public response to disaster must
accommodate and encourage this vital urge to keep community physically intact.”
The coming decades will inevitably challenge the US with floods, fire, tornados and
earthquakes as well as creeping threats such as drought or rising sea levels,
and wildcard events such as terrorist attacks. What role can and will museums
play in preparing their communities to respond to these challenges, and in
uniting and preserving communities in the aftermath of disasters?
Please share your museum's experiences in helping communities deal with disaster. Email stories to futureofmuseums@aam-us.org or post in comments, below.



